Recent on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is still far from delivering peak profitability for long-term investors, despite its continued rally. The data reveals a critical psychological and financial threshold: $140,000. At this price level, long-term holders (LTHs) could finally recapture the same unrealized profit margins seen during the height of the 2024 bull run.
While Bitcoin has shown resilience in recent weeks, breaking above key resistance zones, it remains in a consolidation phase following a prolonged correction. This period of sideways movement may be setting the stage for a powerful breakout — but only if market conditions align to push BTC toward this ambitious target.
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Why $140,000 Is the Magic Number for Bitcoin
At the core of CryptoQuant’s latest research is a simple yet powerful insight: long-term holders have not yet reached their peak profitability from 2024. Despite current optimism and rising prices, the average realized profit for LTHs — those who’ve held BTC for six months or more — remains significantly below previous highs.
Using the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, analysts measured how much value today’s circulating Bitcoin supply holds compared to when each coin was last moved. According to Darkfost, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” series, the current average realized profit sits around 220%.
That might sound impressive — and it is by historical standards — but it pales in comparison to the 300% to 350% profit levels recorded in March and December 2024. During those months, confidence was sky-high, institutional inflows surged, and BTC briefly flirted with $100,000.
So what would it take to close that gap?
Based on the existing cost basis of long-term holders — estimated at approximately $33,800 per BTC** — the price must climb to roughly **$140,000 to restore their unrealized profits to 2024’s peak levels.
“This price point could act as a gravitational pull for the market,” Darkfost noted. “Many are watching and waiting — not just hoping, but expecting — BTC to reach $140K.”
In essence, $140,000 isn’t just a number; it's a psychological milestone that could trigger renewed buying pressure once approached.
Long-Term Holders: The Silent Force Behind Market Stability
Long-term holders play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Unlike short-term traders who react impulsively to volatility, LTHs tend to accumulate during downturns and hold through corrections, providing structural support to the network.
Their behavior also influences supply scarcity. When LTHs stop selling, available liquidity dries up — which can accelerate price increases when demand returns.
Currently, however, many of these investors are sitting on substantial unrealized gains, but not quite at the level where they feel “maximally rewarded.” That means some are beginning to take profits, especially after sharp rallies.
This trend of profit-taking, while natural in any bull cycle, creates temporary downward pressure. But as Rekt Capital observed in his weekly technical analysis, such pullbacks are often part of a healthy market rhythm.
“The next expected move is a breakout followed by a retest,” Rekt Capital wrote on X. “Bitcoin is attempting to escape its weeks-long descending channel.”
BTC/USD weekly chart showing breakout potential. Source: Rekt Capital/X
If successful, this breakout could mark the beginning of a final parabolic leg — one that might carry Bitcoin toward $140,000 before the cycle peaks.
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Is the Bull Market Still Alive?
Despite concerns about slowing momentum and increased sell-side pressure, evidence suggests the bull market remains intact.
According to Cointelegraph, over $2.5 trillion in unrealized profits is currently held across the Bitcoin ecosystem. This massive "paper wealth" indicates strong underlying demand and investor confidence.
Moreover, the ongoing consolidation phase — characterized by tight trading ranges and declining volume — often precedes explosive moves in mature bull markets. Historically, such periods serve as accumulation zones before institutions and whales re-enter with larger positions.
Rekt Capital believes this current phase may last only a few more months, after which Bitcoin could enter its most aggressive upward trajectory yet — potentially culminating in a dramatic trend reversal once euphoria peaks.
But timing the top is notoriously difficult. What matters now is understanding the signals being sent by on-chain behavior, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic trends.
Key Metrics to Watch:
- MVRV Ratio: Indicates whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to realized cost.
- LTH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): Measures profit-taking specifically among long-term holders.
- Exchange Netflow: Tracks whether coins are being withdrawn (bullish) or deposited (bearish).
- Hash Rate Trends: Reflects miner confidence and network security strength.
These indicators collectively paint a picture of a market in transition — not exhaustion.
FAQ: Your Questions About Bitcoin’s $140K Target Answered
Q: Why is $140,000 considered a key price target for Bitcoin?
A: This level represents the price at which long-term holders would regain the same unrealized profit margins they enjoyed during the peak of the 2024 bull market. It's derived from their average cost basis (~$33,800) and historical profit ratios (300–350%).
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $140,000?
A: While no price prediction is guaranteed, historical patterns show that Bitcoin often exceeds expectations during late-stage bull runs. If macro conditions remain favorable and adoption grows, $140K is within the realm of possibility — especially if institutional inflows accelerate.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin fails to reach $140K?
A: Even without hitting that exact figure, sustained price action above $100K could still generate significant returns. However, falling short may signal weaker-than-expected demand or external shocks like regulatory crackdowns or macroeconomic downturns.
Q: Are we still in a bull market?
A: Yes. A true bull market isn’t defined by constant upward movement, but by higher highs and higher lows over time. Current consolidation fits this pattern and aligns with typical mid-to-late cycle behavior.
Q: How reliable is MVRV as an indicator?
A: MVRV has historically been effective at identifying overbought and oversold conditions in Bitcoin’s market cycle. When MVRV exceeds 3.5, it often signals overvaluation; below 1 suggests undervaluation. Currently, it supports the idea that upside potential remains.
Q: Should I sell now to lock in profits?
A: That depends on your investment strategy and risk tolerance. On-chain data shows many long-term holders are taking partial profits but not exiting entirely. A balanced approach — such as scaling out positions gradually — may offer both security and participation in future gains.
👉 Learn how real-time on-chain data can help you make smarter trading decisions.
Final Thoughts: A Rally Built on Data, Not Hype
The journey to $140,000 isn’t driven by speculation alone — it’s grounded in measurable metrics like realized profit, cost basis, and holder behavior. While sentiment plays a role, the foundation of this potential surge lies in on-chain fundamentals.
Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase may feel frustrating to some investors, but it serves an essential purpose: redistributing supply, absorbing sell pressure, and setting up for a stronger move forward.
For long-term believers, $140K isn’t just a dream — it’s a data-informed projection of where this cycle could peak. Whether it’s reached in 2025 or beyond depends on adoption trends, macroeconomic stability, and continued faith in decentralized digital assets.
One thing is clear: the bull market isn't over — it might not even be halfway done.
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