Bitcoin has long captured the imagination of investors, technologists, and financial thinkers alike. Re-reading the now-legendary essay Hodling Bitcoin, several profound insights emerge—insights that remain as relevant in 2025 as they were during Bitcoin’s earlier cycles. This article distills and expands on the original ideas, offering a structured, SEO-optimized exploration of Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, investment psychology, and strategic accumulation methods.
Why Obsessing Over the Bottom Is Counterproductive
One of the most liberating ideas from the original piece is this: for an asset with unlimited upside, pinpointing the exact bottom is unnecessary. Many hesitate, waiting for the “perfect” entry point. But in doing so, they miss the broader trend.
👉 Discover how timing the market compares to consistent investment strategies.
As the text notes: “You arrived late? That’s just bad luck. But it doesn’t mean you’ve missed everything.” With Bitcoin’s cyclical halving events and growing adoption, new investors still have meaningful opportunities—even after significant price appreciation.
Dollar-Cost Averaging: A Smarter Path to Accumulation
Instead of trying to time the market, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) offers a disciplined, low-stress alternative. Consider this example from the original essay:
- DCA from $8,000 down to $900 yields an average cost of around $2,000.
- While this is double the lowest price, it's still just one-fourth of previous all-time highs—a highly favorable position over time.
This strategy reduces emotional decision-making and aligns with long-term wealth building. It’s especially effective for those who lack the stomach for volatility but believe in Bitcoin’s fundamental trajectory.
The Real Reason People Exit Too Early
The article delivers a striking observation: “Getting off too early is caused by having too small a vision.”
Most early adopters sold their Bitcoin not because they lacked information, but because their mental model of value was too limited. They envisioned gains in thousands, not millions. When prices rose tenfold, they cashed out, believing they’d won. In hindsight, they lost far more by not holding.
This ties directly to vision shaping behavior. If you believe Bitcoin could become a global reserve asset, short-term fluctuations become noise.
Why Latecomers Still Have an Advantage
It’s easy to feel discouraged if you’re new to Bitcoin. But consider this encouraging fact:
The vast majority of early Bitcoin holders have already sold. Many watched it rise from $1,000 to $60,000 and exited prematurely.
This is good news. If all early adopters were still holding, demand pressure would be saturated. Instead, persistent low adoption among the general population (less than 5% globally) means massive room for growth.
Even at $70,000+, Bitcoin remains in early adoption phase—comparable to the internet in 1995.
Vision Determines Resilience in Bull and Bear Markets
Without a strong conviction in Bitcoin’s future, no one can endure a bear market psychologically—even if they survive financially.
As the original text warns: “You might survive the bear market without a vision, but you won’t survive the bull market.” Why? Because when prices surge, fear of losing gains triggers premature selling.
👉 Learn how to build conviction through data-driven research.
The key question every investor must answer:
What is Bitcoin’s ultimate potential?
If your answer is “$100K,” you’ll likely sell near that level. But if you see Bitcoin as a global store of value—competing with gold, fiat reserves, and real estate—your holding horizon extends dramatically.
Bitcoin’s Potential Market Cap: A Conservative Estimate
Let’s examine Bitcoin’s potential using real-world asset classes:
- Gold: $7.7 trillion
- Global Broad Money Supply (92%): ~$90.4T × 92% = $83.2T
- Global Real Estate (20%): ~$217T × 20% = $43.4T
Total addressable store-of-value market: ~$134 trillion.
With only 18 million BTC in circulation (after accounting for ~3 million lost coins), achieving parity with this market implies a price per Bitcoin of:
$7.4 million per BTC (~¥50 million RMB)
And that’s before considering network effects, scarcity, portability, and censorship resistance—advantages traditional assets lack.
Assuming 6% annual global wealth growth, by 2045 Bitcoin could reasonably reach ¥160 million RMB per coin if widely adopted as a preferred store of value.
That represents thousands of percent upside from current levels—making today’s prices look like early-stage accumulation zones.
Why Bitcoin Has Never Breached Miner Cost Floors
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has never fallen below the marginal cost of production—i.e., mining electricity costs.
Why does this matter? Because miners act as natural sellers; when prices drop below their break-even point, they shut down. This reduces hash rate, triggers difficulty adjustments, and ultimately creates a self-correcting floor.
While not a perfect predictor, miner cost remains a strong indicator of long-term support levels—especially during bear markets.
When Is the Best Time to Buy?
Two conditions signal strong buying opportunities:
- Bitcoin price < 200-day DCA average cost → You outperform long-term accumulators.
- Bitcoin price < exponential growth model valuation → The market is undervaluing BTC.
When both are true—i.e., both ratios < 1—it suggests significant undervaluation.
According to recent market models, we may currently be entering such a window—a rare alignment seen only a few times in Bitcoin’s history. This could represent the third major optimal accumulation phase, with a potential duration of about one year.
👉 Explore real-time market analytics to identify undervalued entry points.
Risk Management: Why You Should Never Go All-In
Even with strong conviction, never bet everything on Bitcoin.
As investor Li Xiaolai wisely stated in The Self-Education of a韭菜 (Lettuce):
“Going all-in is the biggest taboo in investing. Always keep cash reserves.”
A prudent approach:
- Allocate no more than 30% of your portfolio to high-conviction assets like Bitcoin.
- Maximum exposure should not exceed 50%, even in bullish scenarios.
- Maintain liquidity for emergencies and future opportunities.
This balance allows you to hold through volatility while preserving optionality.
Why Most Early Adopters Failed to Hold
Despite being first, most early players failed to reap exponential rewards—not due to lack of knowledge, but due to short-term thinking.
They focused on immediate profits rather than systemic risk: the risk of missing out entirely on a monetary revolution.
True holders understand that missing the next leg up is far costlier than enduring temporary drawdowns.
Essential Knowledge for Every Bitcoin Investor
To build unshakable conviction, broaden your intellectual foundation:
Critical Thinking
Develop the ability to assess information quality independently. Just because something is free doesn’t mean it’s valuable—or true.
Economics
Study monetary systems, inflation, savings, and investment. Read beyond Austrian economics—explore mainstream macro and microeconomic principles to understand how money functions in society.
Cryptography Basics
Understand core concepts like:
- Public-key cryptography
- Elliptic curve digital signatures
- Hash functions
- Shannon entropy
- Digital signatures
These aren’t just technical details—they’re the bedrock of trustless systems.
Behavioral Psychology
Learn how emotion, stress, and cognitive biases affect decisions. Recognize patterns like FOMO (fear of missing out) and loss aversion that lead to poor timing.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is it too late to start buying Bitcoin now?
A: No. While early adopters gained more percentage-wise, Bitcoin is still in early adoption globally. With less than 5% of people owning it, significant growth remains possible.
Q: How much should I invest in Bitcoin?
A: A common guideline is allocating 10–30% of your portfolio based on risk tolerance. Never invest more than you can afford to hold long-term.
Q: What causes Bitcoin’s price to rise over time?
A: Scarcity (21 million cap), increasing demand, halving-driven supply shocks, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic trends like inflation protection drive long-term appreciation.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach millions per coin?
A: Based on its potential share of the global store-of-value market (gold, cash, real estate), prices in the millions per BTC are mathematically plausible—even conservative—if adoption grows as expected.
Q: Should I use DCA or lump-sum investing?
A: DCA reduces timing risk and emotional stress. Lump-sum works if you’re confident in valuation and have high conviction. Many combine both strategies.
Q: What happens if governments ban Bitcoin?
A: While regulation may increase, banning a decentralized network globally is nearly impossible. Bitcoin’s resilience lies in its distributed nature—it adapts and persists.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin isn’t just a speculative asset—it’s a new paradigm for value storage. Success isn’t about timing every move perfectly; it’s about having a big enough vision to hold through uncertainty.
Whether we're approaching another historic buying window or consolidating for future growth, one truth remains:
Those who understand Bitcoin’s potential early—and hold with discipline—are best positioned for generational wealth creation.
Now is not the time to hesitate. It’s the time to learn, plan, and act with clarity.