Bitcoin is currently trading around $107,200, showing little movement and maintaining a tight consolidation range for six consecutive trading sessions. This period of sub-3% daily volatility has sparked growing speculation among traders: **Is Bitcoin preparing for a breakout toward $110,000—or even $115,000?**
After a surge of 14,695 BTC in volume near the $107,000 support zone, the asset has held firm, indicating strong underlying demand. Meanwhile, Ethereum has rebounded from a brief 3.4% dip, recovering to trade near $2,480 after forming a “V-shaped reversal” from its $2,438 support level. Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional capital continues to flow into digital assets.
But what will it take for Bitcoin to break through the psychological $110K barrier?
Why Low Volatility Could Signal a Big Move
Extended periods of low volatility often precede significant price movements in financial markets—and Bitcoin is no exception. The current consolidation suggests that the market is in a state of equilibrium, with neither bulls nor bears able to gain decisive control.
👉 Discover how low volatility phases can lead to explosive price moves—timing your entry just right.
Historically, such coiling patterns have preceded major rallies or corrections. With Bitcoin stuck between $105,000 and $108,500, traders are watching key catalysts that could tip the balance.
Key Factors That Could Drive Bitcoin Above $110K
While many assume a weakening U.S. dollar automatically boosts Bitcoin, the relationship isn’t always straightforward. In fact, from August 2024 to April 2025, both Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose simultaneously—Bitcoin surged while DXY climbed from 100 to 110. Later, when DXY fell to 104, Bitcoin weakened too.
This shows that dollar weakness alone isn’t enough to push Bitcoin higher. Instead, multiple converging forces may be required.
1. Risk-On Sentiment Driven by Equity Markets
The U.S. remains the world’s largest economy, accounting for 26% of global output. Notably, 46% of revenue for Nasdaq-100 companies comes from international markets. When the dollar weakens, these multinationals benefit as foreign earnings translate into more valuable U.S. dollars.
With the Nasdaq-100 hitting record highs on June 30, investor confidence is rising. Capital is beginning to rotate out of fixed-income assets and into higher-risk investments—including cryptocurrencies.
As risk appetite grows, Bitcoin—often categorized as a risk asset—stands to benefit. A sustained rally in equities could spill over into crypto markets, especially if momentum builds in tech and innovation-driven sectors.
2. Renewed Inflation Pressures
Though inflation has cooled—with the PCE index staying below 2.3% from March to May—there are signs of upward pressure returning.
The 10% import tariffs introduced in April are now filtering through supply chains. Karthik Bettadapura, CEO of DataWeave, told Yahoo Finance:
“In June, we saw the first widespread price increases as sellers adjusted for higher landed costs.”
Even if current inflation remains moderate, Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge persists. During the 2021 bull run, this thesis gained traction—even though actual inflation was still emerging.
Interestingly, Bitcoin rose 114% in 2024 despite low inflation, proving that macroeconomic fundamentals aren’t the only drivers. Market sentiment, adoption trends, and liquidity conditions play equally important roles.
3. Potential Inclusion of Bitcoin-Related Assets in Major Indices
While Bitcoin itself isn’t directly eligible for inclusion in indices like the S&P 500, related financial products or companies with strategic crypto exposure could be.
Joe Burnett, director at Semler Scientific, noted:
“Once included, there could be a wave of passive fund inflows chasing Bitcoin-linked assets.”
Such an event would trigger automatic buying from index-tracking funds, potentially injecting billions into the ecosystem. Even indirect exposure via ETFs or corporate treasury holdings could amplify demand.
Crypto Market Outlook for Late 2025
So far in 2025, the crypto market has seen modest gains amid global economic headwinds—geopolitical tensions, recession fears, and policy uncertainty. According to TradingView data, total crypto market capitalization rose just 3%, reaching $3.27 trillion.
Yet analysts remain optimistic about the second half of the year.
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, highlights a seasonal trend:
“July has historically been strong for crypto. Since 2013, it’s delivered an average return of 7.56%.”
He adds:
“We’re entering a period of historically high returns. The broader environment remains supportive.”
👉 See how seasonal trends and macro shifts are aligning for a potential late-year rally.
Coinbase analysts also express bullishness, citing three key tailwinds:
- Favorable macro conditions, including potential Fed rate cuts
- Improved regulatory clarity, particularly around stablecoins and market structure
- Growing corporate adoption of digital assets beyond just Bitcoin
Expanding Beyond Bitcoin: The Rise of Multi-Asset Crypto Strategies
Institutional interest is no longer limited to Bitcoin. More companies are exploring diversified portfolios that include Ethereum and other high-utility blockchains.
This shift reflects maturation in the digital asset space—moving from speculative trading to strategic financial management. As on-chain activity grows and Layer-2 solutions enhance scalability, Ethereum and select altcoins are gaining credibility as long-term holdings.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Can Bitcoin break $110K without a weakening dollar?
A: Yes. While dollar strength influences capital flows, Bitcoin has previously risen alongside a strong dollar. Other factors like risk sentiment, ETF inflows, and macro liquidity matter more in the short term.
Q: Is low volatility good or bad for Bitcoin?
A: It’s often a precursor to volatility expansion. Extended calm typically ends with a sharp move—either up or down—especially when major catalysts emerge.
Q: How do tariffs affect cryptocurrency prices?
A: Indirectly. Tariffs can reignite inflation, which may boost demand for assets perceived as hedges. They also impact corporate profits and consumer spending, influencing broader risk appetite.
Q: Could Bitcoin ever be added to the S&P 500?
A: Not directly—due to regulatory and structural constraints. However, companies with significant crypto holdings or ETFs based on Bitcoin could be included, creating indirect exposure.
Q: What’s the best indicator to watch for a breakout?
A: Volume surge combined with closing above $108,500 is key. A weekly close above $110K would confirm bullish momentum.
Q: Are we in a bull market?
A: The underlying trend remains bullish since early 2023, but we’re currently in a consolidation phase. A breakout above $115K would reconfirm strong upward momentum.
Final Thoughts: A Confluence of Catalysts Ahead
Bitcoin’s path above $110,000 will likely depend on a convergence of factors:
- Continued strength in equity markets
- Re-emerging inflation concerns
- Regulatory progress
- Passive fund inflows via index inclusion or ETFs
While short-term price action remains range-bound, the foundation for a larger move appears to be forming.
With July historically favoring strong returns and macro conditions gradually improving, late 2025 could mark the next leg of the crypto cycle.
For investors, patience and strategic positioning may be rewarded as volatility eventually returns—and when it does, Bitcoin could be ready to surge.