Bitcoin (BTC) continues to captivate global financial markets, and one of the world’s most respected banking institutions, Standard Chartered, has issued a bold new forecast. According to the bank’s digital asset research team, Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by the end of Q3 2025** and surge further to **$200,000 by the end of the year. This projection marks a significant shift from traditional price models tied to Bitcoin’s historical halving cycles.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, attributes this bullish outlook to transformative developments in market structure and investor behavior. The core of this new narrative is that Bitcoin has broken free from its past price patterns, particularly the well-documented post-halving downturn that typically occurred around 18 months after each event.
“Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle.”
This statement underscores a pivotal evolution in how institutional and corporate capital now interacts with Bitcoin — a shift that may redefine long-term price expectations.
Why Bitcoin Has Moved Beyond the Halving Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has followed a predictable rhythm tied to its four-year halving cycle, where block rewards are cut in half, reducing new supply. After each halving, prices typically surged before entering a correction phase approximately 18 months later. However, Standard Chartered argues this pattern no longer holds due to powerful new demand drivers.
Two key catalysts are reshaping the landscape:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs – The approval and rapid adoption of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in major markets like the U.S. have opened the floodgates for institutional and retail investment. These ETFs provide regulated, liquid access to Bitcoin without requiring direct custody, significantly lowering entry barriers.
- Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries – An increasing number of public companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets as a strategic reserve asset. Firms like MicroStrategy have pioneered leveraged BTC accumulation strategies, inspiring others to follow suit.
👉 Discover how institutional adoption is fueling Bitcoin’s next price surge.
These developments were absent during earlier halving cycles, meaning historical price models may no longer apply. With sustained inflows into ETFs and growing corporate treasury demand, the bank sees a fundamentally stronger support base for Bitcoin prices.
Q3 and Q4: Critical Quarters for Bitcoin Momentum
While the long-term outlook is optimistic, Standard Chartered acknowledges potential volatility in the near term. If past trends were to repeat — despite being outdated — a seasonal dip could emerge around September or October, aligning with the typical post-halving correction window.
However, Kendrick believes this risk is mitigated by current market dynamics:
- ETF inflows remain strong, with recent data showing 15 consecutive days of positive flows totaling nearly $5 billion.
- Corporate treasury accumulation is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4.
- Investor sentiment remains resilient, supported by macroeconomic factors such as inflation hedging and monetary policy uncertainty.
The combination of these forces suggests that any short-term pullback could be shallow and short-lived — creating buying opportunities rather than signaling a bearish reversal.
Corporate Bitcoin Buying Set to Accelerate in Q3
One of the most compelling insights from Standard Chartered’s report is the projection of increased corporate BTC purchases in the coming quarters. In Q2 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries collectively acquired 245,000 BTC — a staggering amount equivalent to over $14 billion at current prices.
Kendrick forecasts that this pace will not only continue but accelerate in Q3 and Q4, driven by new entrants adopting strategies similar to those used by leading adopters like MicroStrategy.
Although MicroStrategy itself has slowed its buying activity recently, the analyst expects other companies to “take up any slack,” ensuring uninterrupted demand pressure.
“As a result, we expect Bitcoin treasuries as a whole to buy more BTC in Q3 than they did in Q2 — a positive driver of flows.”
This shift indicates a maturing ecosystem where Bitcoin is no longer just an asset held by pioneers but is becoming a strategic component of corporate financial planning.
👉 See how top companies are integrating Bitcoin into their financial strategies.
Key Drivers Behind the $200K Bitcoin Price Target
Standard Chartered’s $200K year-end target isn’t based on speculation — it’s rooted in measurable demand trends and structural shifts. Here are the primary factors supporting this forecast:
- Sustained ETF Inflows: With major asset managers now offering Bitcoin exposure, capital flows are becoming more consistent and scalable.
- Limited Supply Growth: Post-halving, Bitcoin’s inflation rate dropped below 1%, making it scarcer than ever. This tightening supply, combined with rising demand, creates strong upward price pressure.
- Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty: As central banks navigate inflation, debt levels, and currency devaluation risks, Bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized, non-sovereign store of value grows.
- Expanding Institutional Infrastructure: Custody solutions, regulated trading platforms, and financial products continue to mature, reducing friction for large-scale investment.
These elements form a powerful convergence that Standard Chartered believes will propel Bitcoin beyond previous resistance levels.
FAQ: Your Questions About Bitcoin’s $200K Forecast
What is driving Standard Chartered’s bullish Bitcoin prediction?
The bank cites institutional adoption via spot ETFs and corporate treasury investments as primary drivers. These new demand sources have altered Bitcoin’s traditional price cycle.
Has Bitcoin really broken its halving cycle?
Evidence suggests yes. Past post-halving corrections relied on limited demand structures. Today’s institutional inflows and corporate strategies provide sustained buying pressure that can counteract historical downtrends.
Could Bitcoin really hit $200K in 2025?
While no forecast is guaranteed, $200K is plausible given current momentum. At 245,000 BTC bought in just one quarter — and growing — demand continues to outpace supply issuance.
What risks could prevent Bitcoin from reaching $135K–$200K?
Regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic shocks, or prolonged bearish sentiment could slow progress. However, the current trajectory of adoption suggests resilience even in volatile conditions.
Are corporate treasuries still buying Bitcoin?
Yes. While early leaders like MicroStrategy have paused aggressive buying, many other firms are entering the space. The overall trend remains upward.
How can I track real-time Bitcoin accumulation trends?
Monitoring ETF flow data and corporate treasury announcements provides insight into institutional demand. Platforms offering on-chain analytics also help visualize large-scale BTC movements.
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Final Thoughts: A New Era for Bitcoin
Standard Chartered’s forecast signals more than just a price target — it reflects a fundamental transformation in how financial markets view Bitcoin. No longer seen as a speculative fringe asset, BTC is increasingly recognized as a strategic reserve asset with unique monetary properties.
As ETFs expand global access and corporations adopt long-term holding strategies, the foundation for sustained price growth strengthens. While volatility will remain part of the journey, the underlying demand drivers suggest that milestones like $135K and $200K are within reach — not as outliers, but as logical outcomes of an evolving financial paradigm.
Whether you're an investor, analyst, or observer, one thing is clear: Bitcoin’s role in the global economy is expanding, and 2025 could be the year it truly breaks into mainstream financial consciousness.
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