The cryptocurrency market is showing renewed momentum in early 2025, with Toncoin (TON) emerging as a key asset capturing investor attention. A recent analysis by Burak Kesmeci of CryptoQuant highlights that TON may be entering the early stages of a potential price rebound. The critical indicator—90-day percentage return—has begun to shift upward, a movement historically associated with strong price rallies in Toncoin.
This shift is not just a statistical blip; it echoes past market behavior with striking consistency. When the 90-day return metric turns positive, Toncoin has repeatedly responded with significant gains in the following weeks. This pattern offers a compelling roadmap for what might lie ahead.
Understanding the 90-Day Return Indicator
The 90-day percentage return measures the change in an asset’s price over the past three months. For Toncoin, this metric has served as a reliable leading signal before major price movements. According to Kesmeci, when this indicator transitions from negative to positive territory, it often precedes substantial upside momentum.
Historically, such reversals have coincided with explosive growth phases:
- In August 2023, Toncoin rebounded from $1.72 and surged 65% within 70 days following a positive shift in the 90-day return.
- In February 2024, a similar indicator reversal preceded a staggering 258% increase over just 43 days.
- Most recently, in November 2024, TON climbed 32% in only 11 days after the same signal appeared.
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These recurring patterns suggest that the current uptick in the 90-day return could signal the start of another bullish phase. With the indicator turning positive just one week ago, market participants are increasingly optimistic about short-term buying opportunities.
Based on median historical performance following such signals, Kesmeci forecasts a potential 65% increase in Toncoin’s value over the next 43 days—a projection that aligns closely with previous mid-range rallies.
Current Market Conditions: Caution Amid Optimism
Despite the encouraging technical outlook, current price action tells a more complex story. Since the beginning of 2025, Toncoin has not experienced meaningful upward movement. Instead, it has been in a consistent downtrend.
Over the past two weeks alone, TON has declined by nearly 12%, and its current trading price remains below $6, down 7.5% in the last 24 hours. This downward pressure raises questions about whether broader market sentiment might delay or dampen the anticipated rally.
However, one notable development stands out: trading volume is rising despite falling prices. Over the past seven days, daily volume has jumped from $200 million to approximately **$344 million**. This surge in activity amid price declines suggests growing market interest—even if driven partly by selling pressure.
High volume during corrections can sometimes indicate accumulation by informed investors, setting the stage for a stronger recovery once sentiment shifts. It may also reflect increased volatility and liquidity, both of which are common precursors to breakout movements.
Why Past Patterns Matter
The repeated correlation between the 90-day return reversal and subsequent price surges underscores the importance of historical context in crypto analysis. While no indicator guarantees future results, consistent behavioral patterns across multiple cycles increase predictive reliability—especially in assets like Toncoin with a relatively transparent on-chain footprint.
Toncoin’s integration with the Telegram ecosystem continues to drive user adoption and real-world utility, contributing to its long-term resilience. As messaging platforms expand their financial services, TON’s role as a fast, scalable blockchain positions it favorably for sustained growth.
Moreover, macro-level factors such as improving regulatory clarity and growing institutional interest in Layer-1 blockchains add further tailwinds to TON’s fundamentals.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the 90-day percentage return indicator?
A: It measures the price change of an asset over the past 90 days. For Toncoin, a shift from negative to positive values has historically preceded major rallies.
Q: Is Toncoin likely to rise by 65% by March 2025?
A: Based on historical patterns following similar indicator reversals, a 65% gain within 43 days is within the realm of possibility—but not guaranteed. Market conditions and broader sentiment will play crucial roles.
Q: Why is trading volume increasing while price falls?
A: Rising volume during a price drop can indicate heightened interest, possibly from traders accumulating positions or increased volatility ahead of a breakout.
Q: How reliable are historical patterns in crypto markets?
A: While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, consistent patterns—especially when tied to measurable on-chain or technical indicators—can provide valuable guidance for informed decision-making.
Q: What factors could disrupt a Toncoin rally?
A: Negative macroeconomic news, regulatory setbacks, or broad market sell-offs could delay or prevent the expected rebound, even if technical indicators appear favorable.
Q: Where can I track Toncoin’s real-time data and trends?
A: Reliable platforms offer up-to-date charts, volume metrics, and on-chain analytics to monitor TON’s performance and verify emerging signals.
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Final Outlook: A Balanced Perspective
While Burak Kesmeci’s analysis presents a bullish case for Toncoin based on proven historical patterns, investors should approach with both opportunity awareness and risk management. The current dip below $6 may represent a strategic entry point for long-term holders, especially if the 90-day return continues its upward trajectory.
At the same time, short-term traders must remain vigilant. Volatility is inherent in cryptocurrency markets, and sudden shifts in sentiment can override even the strongest technical signals.
As we move deeper into 2025, Toncoin remains one of the most watched Layer-1 projects due to its unique positioning within the Telegram ecosystem and growing decentralized application (dApp) activity. Whether or not the predicted 65% surge materializes, the underlying momentum suggests that TON will continue playing a pivotal role in shaping the future of blockchain-based communication and finance.
For those tracking digital asset trends, staying informed through reliable indicators—and knowing when to act—is more important than ever.