In recent days, Bitcoin has pulled back significantly from its near $100,000 all-time high reached last Friday, with notable price action over the past 24 hours sparking renewed discussion among institutional observers. One of the most prominent voices in this space—Standard Chartered—has offered valuable perspective on the current market dynamics, macro drivers, and what could come next for BTC.
This analysis dives into the bank's outlook, unpacking the underlying forces shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory: from Treasury market shifts and options expiry to institutional accumulation patterns. Whether you're a long-term holder or evaluating entry points, understanding these macro-financial linkages is key to navigating today’s volatile yet promising environment.
The Macro Catalyst Behind the Pullback
A major factor influencing Bitcoin’s recent correction appears tied to shifting expectations in traditional financial (TradFi) markets—particularly U.S. Treasury yields. According to institutional research insights, the decline in long-end Treasury yields following comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent contributed to a compression in term premium—the extra return investors demand for holding longer-dated debt.
While official term premium data from the New York Fed lags (showing only Friday’s increase via Bloomberg’s ACMTP10 index), bond market behavior yesterday strongly suggests declining risk premiums. This matters for Bitcoin because one of its core value propositions is serving as a hedge against TradFi instability—especially concerns around banking systems or fiscal policy.
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When confidence improves in traditional markets—such as when term premiums fall due to perceived lower systemic risk—risk flows can temporarily rotate away from alternative stores of value like Bitcoin. Thus, the recent pullback may reflect not weakness in BTC fundamentals, but rather a cyclical response to improved sentiment in legacy finance.
Options Expiry and Market Structure
Another technical force at play is Friday’s monthly options expiry on Deribit. A significant open interest sits at BTC call options between the $85,000 and $100,000 strike prices, representing roughly 18,000 BTC in notional value. Large expiries like this often create "pinning" effects, where price action slows or consolidates near key strike levels ahead of settlement.
Market makers hedging these positions can suppress volatility, leading to tighter ranges in the days leading up to expiry. Once the event passes, however, pent-up momentum may reignite—especially if underlying demand remains strong.
Institutional Accumulation: ETFs and MSTR Fuel Demand
Since the U.S. elections, institutional demand for Bitcoin has surged dramatically—not just through spot ETFs but also via corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy (MSTR). Together, these two channels have absorbed a staggering amount of supply:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Accumulated approximately 77,000 BTC post-election.
- MicroStrategy: Purchased an additional 134,000 BTC, bringing its total holdings to over 250,000 BTC.
This combined buying pressure reflects a strategic shift: Bitcoin is increasingly viewed not as speculative crypto, but as a legitimate reserve asset.
An important observation is that MicroStrategy has no intention of selling its Bitcoin holdings. Its acquisition strategy is long-term and conviction-based, reinforcing BTC’s scarcity narrative.
When we calculate the average purchase price across both ETF inflows and MSTR buys since the election, it comes to $88,700. This level now serves as a critical psychological and technical benchmark.
Strategic Entry Zone: $85,000–$88,700
Given the current retracement, many analysts—including those tracking Standard Chartered’s commentary—see the $85,000 to $88,700 range as a compelling accumulation zone. Notably, Bitcoin hasn’t traded below $85,000 since the massive bullish candle on November 11, underscoring strong support in that region.
Breaking below $88,700 could trigger further short-term selling pressure as leveraged positions are flushed out. However, such a move would likely present a high-conviction buying opportunity for institutions and long-term investors aligned with the macro thesis.
What Lies Ahead? Targets Beyond $100K
Looking forward, the medium- to long-term outlook remains bullish. Once this consolidation phase ends, the path above $100,000 appears viable—potentially accelerating toward **$125,000 by year-end. Extending into 2025, some projections suggest Bitcoin could reach $200,000**, driven by continued institutional adoption, halving supply dynamics, and global macro uncertainty.
These targets are not based on hype alone but on measurable demand trends and evolving financial infrastructure supporting digital assets.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why did Bitcoin drop after approaching $100K?
A: The pullback was likely driven by reduced Treasury term premiums (indicating lower systemic risk), which temporarily weakened BTC's appeal as a hedge. Additionally, monthly options expiry can cause price stagnation before large contracts settle.
Q: Is MicroStrategy still buying Bitcoin?
A: Yes—MicroStrategy continues to accumulate BTC as part of its long-term treasury strategy. It has purchased over 134,000 BTC since the U.S. elections and shows no signs of stopping.
Q: What is the significance of $88,700 for Bitcoin?
A: That’s the average entry price for both ETFs and MicroStrategy since the election. It acts as a key reference point for institutional cost basis and potential support during corrections.
Q: Can Bitcoin reach $200K by 2025?
A: While not guaranteed, multiple institutional analysts believe this is possible due to limited supply post-halving, growing adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds such as potential monetary easing or geopolitical instability.
Q: How do options expiries affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Large expiries can lead to price pinning near strike levels as market makers adjust hedges. After expiry, volatility often returns as hedging pressure lifts.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin during this dip?
A: For long-term investors comfortable with volatility, dips into the $85K–$88.7K range may represent strategic entry points—especially given strong underlying demand from ETFs and corporate buyers.
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Final Thoughts
The current Bitcoin market reflects a maturing asset class deeply intertwined with global macro trends. Movements aren't happening in isolation—they're responses to shifts in traditional finance, regulatory clarity, and institutional capital flows.
Standard Chartered’s analytical lens highlights how BTC is increasingly behaving like a macro hedge rather than pure speculation. With ETFs and corporate giants like MicroStrategy absorbing supply at record rates, the foundation for higher prices remains intact—even amid short-term volatility.
As we approach critical technical levels and structural turning points, staying informed and positioned with clear strategy will be essential for navigating what could be one of Bitcoin’s most transformative phases yet.