Bitcoin briefly dipped below $105,000 on May 30, touching a low of $104,600—the same day marking the conclusion of the high-profile Bitcoin 2025 conference. This sudden drop sparked renewed debate across the crypto community: is this a temporary market correction, or the beginning of a prolonged consolidation period? Ethereum followed suit, sliding from $2,788 to $2,557, while meme-inspired altcoins like BERA hit new lows. Despite the pullback, key on-chain metrics and institutional activity suggest underlying strength in the market structure.
With over $330 million in liquidations across the derivatives market in just one hour—$321 million from long positions—the volatility was sharp but not unprecedented. Yet, major analysts and institutions remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to healthy profit-taking, strong ETF inflows, and growing macro-level adoption as signs that the bull cycle may still have room to run.
Market Reaction: Sharp Pullback Amid Conference Closure
The timing of the price drop—coinciding with the final day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference—echoed historical patterns where major events often precede short-term market reversals. While sentiment was bullish heading into the event, the post-conference sell-off reflects typical profit realization by traders capitalizing on event-driven momentum.
👉 Discover how market cycles influence Bitcoin’s price behavior after major events.
Despite the dip, Bitcoin has maintained resilience compared to previous corrections. The broader crypto market saw a general pullback, especially among speculative assets tied to social trends and retail hype. However, core fundamentals such as spot ETF performance and institutional accumulation continue to signal long-term confidence.
Placeholder Partner: Correction Doesn’t Signal Market End
Chris Burniske, partner at venture firm Placeholder, emphasized perspective in a recent social media post:
“Don’t mistake a small correction for the end of the market—the overall risk/return structure is still good.”
This sentiment aligns with historical trends where mid-cycle corrections serve to reset leverage and cool overheated speculation without derailing the broader uptrend. The current market environment, according to Burniske, still offers favorable conditions for strategic entry points, especially for investors focused on long-term value rather than short-term volatility.
Matrixport: Rising Open Interest Points to Shifting Risk Appetite
A recent report from Matrixport highlights a significant increase in Bitcoin futures open interest since April’s market lows. Markus Thielen of 10x Research notes that while meme coin enthusiasm—driven by platforms like Pump.fun—has cooled, investor focus has shifted back to Bitcoin.
This shift underscores Bitcoin’s dual narrative: it functions both as a risk-on asset during periods of liquidity expansion and as a risk-off store of value amid macro uncertainty. The surge in open interest suggests growing institutional participation and hedging activity, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold.”
However, open interest has recently plateaued—a potential signal that traders are taking profits and preparing to re-enter at lower levels. This behavior is typical in mature markets and indicates a more disciplined trading environment compared to earlier bull cycles.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin Enters Healthy Consolidation Phase
According to the Bitfinex Alpha report published on May 26, Bitcoin underwent a 32% correction after its January all-time high but rebounded strongly—gaining over 50% to reach $111,880—before entering what appears to be a healthy consolidation phase.
Key drivers behind this structural strength include:
- Strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Increased participation in the spot market
- Positive net realized capital growth (indicating more gains than losses on transferred coins)
Notably, Bitcoin showed resilience even amid macro headwinds—such as rumors of a potential 50% U.S. tariff on European imports—without experiencing a deep sell-off during deleveraging phases.
This evolving behavior suggests Bitcoin is transitioning into a macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset, with price action increasingly tied to global liquidity conditions rather than retail sentiment alone.
Recent developments further validate institutional support:
- Japan’s Metaplanet acquired $104 million worth of Bitcoin
- Michigan lawmakers proposed legislation favorable to crypto asset adoption
These moves reflect growing recognition of digital assets as legitimate components of corporate treasury strategies and public policy frameworks.
Will Bitcoin Hold Above $95,000?
The critical level to watch is Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis—around $95,000. Over the past month, short-term holders have realized over **$11.4 billion in profits**, which could create near-term selling pressure. However, sustained ETF demand and low realized volatility suggest that any dip may be absorbed by structural buyers.
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $95,000, it could set the stage for a stronger Q3 rally. Conversely, a breakdown below this zone might extend consolidation into mid-2025.
👉 Learn how ETF inflows are shaping Bitcoin’s next price move.
Arthur Hayes: Ethereum Poised to Double
At the Bitcoin 2025 conference, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made headlines with his bullish forecast for Ethereum. He believes ETH is on track to reach $4,000–$5,000 by year-end, driven by its undervaluation relative to other Layer 1 blockchains.
Hayes described Ethereum as the “least popular Layer 1 public chain” at present—a status he views as a contrarian opportunity during a transitional phase in the market cycle. With upcoming protocol upgrades and increasing adoption in DeFi and real-world asset tokenization, Ethereum may be poised for a resurgence even as attention remains focused on Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant: Profit-Taking High but Not Frenzied
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed to rising STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) levels—a 30-day moving average measuring profit realization by short-term holders—as evidence of active profit-taking.
While STH SOPR recently hit a local high, it has not yet reached peak levels seen during previous bull market tops. This indicates that while traders are locking in gains, market euphoria remains contained. The absence of panic selling or capitulation further supports the view that this is a healthy correction rather than the start of a bearish reversal.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin’s drop below $105,000 a sign of a bear market?
A: Not necessarily. The pullback aligns with typical mid-cycle corrections. Strong ETF inflows and institutional buying suggest underlying demand remains intact.
Q: Why did so many long positions get liquidated?
A: High leverage in the futures market amplified the move. A rapid price drop triggered margin calls, leading to cascading liquidations—especially among over-leveraged longs.
Q: What does STH SOPR tell us about market sentiment?
A: Rising STH SOPR shows short-term traders are realizing profits. However, current levels are below prior bull market extremes, indicating controlled selling rather than panic.
Q: Can Ethereum really reach $5,000 this year?
A: While ambitious, Hayes’ prediction hinges on increased institutional interest and network upgrades. If macro conditions improve and ETH ETF approvals gain momentum, it’s within reach.
Q: How important is the $95,000 support level for Bitcoin?
A: Very. It represents the average cost basis for short-term holders. Holding above it increases confidence in continued upward momentum; breaking below could extend consolidation.
Q: Is Bitcoin becoming more like gold or tech stocks?
A: It's evolving into both—a digital store of value and a liquidity-sensitive asset. Its price now responds to Fed policy, inflation data, and global risk appetite.
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