Bitcoin’s price momentum stalled despite early gains tied to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent appearance at a major crypto event. While initial market sentiment turned bullish ahead of the speech, the absence of concrete policy announcements led to a swift reversal. As on-chain data reveals weakening liquidity and demand, questions arise about the sustainability of a near-term rally—even as a new wave of "whale" investors accumulates large volumes of BTC.
This analysis dives into the interplay between political influence, investor behavior, and technical indicators shaping Bitcoin’s current trajectory in 2025.
Trump’s Crypto Speech: Hype Without Policy Substance
On Thursday, Donald Trump appeared via video at Blockworks’ digital asset summit, reaffirming his support for cryptocurrency and framing it as a tool for economic growth. The appearance sparked short-term optimism, pushing Bitcoin above the critical 200-day moving average (MA) earlier in the week.
👉 Discover how political narratives shape crypto markets and what to watch next.
However, markets quickly cooled when it became clear that no new executive actions, tax reforms, or regulatory shifts were announced. Investors had hoped for clarity on issues like “debanking” or federal crypto taxation—topics that have created uncertainty across the industry.
Without fresh policy direction, the rally lost steam. The market had already priced in Trump’s general pro-crypto stance; the lack of new developments triggered profit-taking and a 3.12% drop the following day, pulling BTC back below the 200-day MA.
Whale Accumulation: Bullish Signal or Short-Term Speculation?
Despite fading momentum, on-chain data reveals a significant development: over 1 million Bitcoin have been acquired by a new class of large investors since late November 2024. Notably, 200,000 BTC were accumulated in just the past month alone.
According to research from CryptoQuant, these “new whales”—defined as addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC—have held their coins for less than six months on average. This suggests they are not long-term holders (HODLers), but rather opportunistic investors positioning for short-to-medium-term gains.
Market analysts interpret such concentrated buying as a sign of near-term price confidence. When whales move aggressively, it often precedes upward volatility—especially if their strategy is momentum-based rather than passive.
Yet this accumulation occurs against a backdrop of broader market caution. While whale activity hints at potential upside, other metrics tell a more cautious story.
On-Chain Data: Declining Liquidity and Weakening Demand
Glassnode’s latest on-chain analysis paints a picture of a maturing but sluggish Bitcoin market. Key indicators point to contracting liquidity and stalled capital inflows, raising doubts about an imminent breakout.
The Realized Cap, which measures the total value of all existing BTC at their last movement price, has grown by only +0.67% per month recently—signaling minimal fresh investment.
Two critical metrics highlight weakening speculative interest:
- Hot Supply: The percentage of Bitcoin wealth in coins younger than one week has dropped from 5.9% to 2.8% of the circulating supply—a decline of over 50%. This reflects reduced trading activity and lower speculative appetite.
- Exchange Inflows: Daily BTC inflows to exchanges have fallen from +58.6k BTC at peak market levels to +26.9k BTC, a 54% decrease. Lower inflows typically suggest fewer sellers, but in this context, they align with broader disengagement.
Long-term holders remain largely inactive, further contributing to market stagnation. With both active trading and new capital inflows slowing, the ecosystem lacks the fuel needed for a sustained rally.
FAQ: Understanding On-Chain Signals
Q: What does declining Hot Supply mean for Bitcoin prices?
A: A shrinking Hot Supply indicates fewer coins are actively being traded, often signaling reduced speculation. While this can precede consolidation or accumulation phases, it may delay strong upward moves until fresh demand returns.
Q: Are fewer exchange inflows bullish?
A: Generally, yes—fewer coins moving to exchanges suggest holders aren’t preparing to sell. However, without corresponding buying pressure, low inflows alone don’t drive price increases.
Q: Can whales push Bitcoin higher even with weak overall demand?
A: Whales can create short-term spikes through concentrated buying, but sustained rallies require broad market participation. Without wider investor engagement, whale-driven moves may fizzle out.
ETF Flows Turn Negative Amid Shifting Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin ETFs saw four consecutive days of net inflows totaling $11.8 million, led by Bitwise’s BITB and Grayscale’s GBTC. However, this trend reversed on **March 20**, with **$6.4 million in net outflows**.
This shift mirrors the broader decline in market demand and reinforces Glassnode’s findings. More notably, Gold ETFs have recently outpaced Bitcoin ETFs in inflows, suggesting some investors are reallocating to traditional safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty.
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The growing appeal of gold highlights a potential rotation from risk-on crypto assets to more stable stores of value—a trend that could intensify if geopolitical risks or inflation concerns escalate.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Structure With Key Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, BTC/USD remains in a bearish trend on the daily chart. A confirmed close above $90,000 is required to invalidate this structure—but that level remains distant.
Currently, the $85,000 zone is critical—it coincides with the 200-day MA and acts as both support and resistance depending on price action. The brief breakout above this level on Wednesday failed, followed by a sharp pullback.
The 14-period RSI remains below neutral at 50, with that level now acting as resistance. A sustained move above 50 would signal improving momentum.
Key Levels (BTC/USD)
Resistance
- $85,000 (200-day MA)
- $86,845
- $90,000 (psychological barrier)
Support
- $82,133
- $80,000 (major psychological level)
- $78,197
A break below $82,133 could open the door to retesting $78,197 and potentially lower. Conversely, reclaiming $85,000 with volume could reignite bullish hopes.
FAQ: Navigating Bitcoin’s Price Range
Q: What would confirm a trend reversal for Bitcoin?
A: A daily candle closing above $90,000—with strong volume and RSI breaking above 50—would signal a structural bullish shift. Until then, the market remains range-bound and vulnerable to downside.
Q: How reliable are whale movements as price predictors?
A: Whale activity is insightful but not foolproof. Large buys can indicate confidence, but timing and context matter. Combined with strong fundamentals or macro tailwinds, whale accumulation carries more weight.
Q: Should I be worried about negative ETF flows?
A: Short-term outflows aren’t alarming on their own. However, when paired with declining on-chain activity and weakening sentiment, they suggest cooling institutional interest—which can weigh on prices over time.
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Final Thoughts: Caution Amid Contradictory Signals
Bitcoin stands at a crossroads in 2025. While new whale accumulation offers a glimmer of bullish hope, declining liquidity, stagnant ETF inflows, and lackluster technical structure point to ongoing weakness.
Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric provided temporary momentum but lacked policy substance to sustain it. Meanwhile, macro trends favoring gold over digital assets add another layer of complexity.
For now, traders should watch the $85,000–$82,133 range closely. A decisive move beyond these levels—supported by improving on-chain health—will determine whether Bitcoin regains its upward trajectory or enters a deeper consolidation phase.
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