SEC May Recognize XRP and DOGE ETF Filings This Week—What’s Next?

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could be on the verge of a pivotal decision that may reshape the future of cryptocurrency investment products. With growing speculation surrounding the potential approval of spot XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs, market analysts are closely watching regulatory developments. Recent filings and shifting regulatory sentiment suggest that the SEC may soon acknowledge these applications—marking a significant step toward broader crypto market maturation.

XRP ETF Approval Odds at 65%: Legal Clarity Drives Momentum

According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the likelihood of the SEC approving an XRP ETF currently stands at 65%. While not a guarantee, this figure reflects increasing optimism in the crypto financial sector. The shift in sentiment is largely attributed to a landmark federal court ruling that challenged the SEC’s prior classification of XRP as a security.

Under previous leadership, the SEC maintained that XRP was a security due to its distribution model and association with Ripple Labs. However, a 2023 court decision clarified that XRP sales on public exchanges did not constitute unregistered securities offerings—creating regulatory space for financial innovation around the asset.

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This legal precedent has prompted a reassessment within the agency, especially as multiple asset managers—including Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary, and WisdomTree—have submitted registration statements for XRP-based ETFs. These filings are supported by Form 19b-4 submissions routed through major exchanges like Nasdaq and Cboe, signaling institutional readiness.

Despite this momentum, the SEC has yet to formally acknowledge the 19b-4 filings for XRP. Industry experts anticipate that action could come within days, though final approval remains contingent on resolving outstanding legal uncertainties between Ripple and the SEC.

Dogecoin and Litecoin Lead the Altcoin ETF Race

While XRP’s path remains partially obstructed by litigation, other altcoins are gaining faster traction with regulators. Dogecoin (DOGE) and Litecoin (LTC) are emerging as frontrunners in the race for ETF approvals, thanks to their clearer regulatory positioning.

Dogecoin ETF: 75% Approval Likelihood

Dogecoin is currently assigned a 75% chance of ETF approval, primarily because the SEC has informally recognized it as a commodity rather than a security. This classification aligns DOGE with Bitcoin and Ethereum in regulatory treatment—making it more compatible with existing commodity ETF frameworks.

Unlike tokens tied to centralized development teams or fundraising mechanisms, Dogecoin’s decentralized origins and meme-driven inception reduce concerns about issuer influence or investor manipulation. These factors work in its favor when navigating SEC scrutiny.

Litecoin ETF: 90% Chance of Approval

Litecoin holds the strongest position among altcoins, with analysts estimating a 90% probability of ETF approval. The SEC has already acknowledged filings for Litecoin-based ETFs, indicating proactive engagement with sponsors. LTC’s long-standing presence, transparent supply mechanics, and proof-of-work consensus further bolster its case as a bona fide digital commodity.

Solana (SOL), another high-profile contender, sits at a 70% approval odds, reflecting cautious optimism. While not yet formally recognized by the SEC, SOL’s technological robustness and growing ecosystem are being weighed against concerns over centralization and validator concentration.

Regulatory Evolution: A New Chapter for Crypto Oversight

The evolving stance of the SEC reflects broader institutional adaptation to digital assets. Under the guidance of Commissioner Hester Peirce—often referred to as “Crypto Mom”—and the newly established Crypto Task Force, the commission is working toward clearer frameworks for classifying cryptocurrencies.

This initiative aims to distinguish between securities (subject to strict investor protection rules) and commodities (regulated more loosely under futures and trading laws). By refining these definitions, the SEC hopes to reduce ambiguity that has historically stalled innovation.

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Although full clarity isn't expected until late 2025, interim decisions—such as acknowledging ETF filings—can signal progress. Each acknowledgment acts as a de facto endorsement of an asset’s legitimacy, even if final approval takes longer.

Key Factors Influencing ETF Approvals

Several core elements determine whether a cryptocurrency qualifies for ETF consideration:

For XRP, legal resolution remains the final gatekeeper. Until Ripple’s case concludes definitively, any ETF application will face heightened scrutiny.

FAQ: Understanding the Crypto ETF Landscape

What is a spot crypto ETF?

A spot crypto ETF holds actual cryptocurrency assets rather than futures contracts or derivatives. It allows investors to gain exposure to price movements without directly owning or storing coins.

Why does commodity classification matter for ETFs?

Commodities have established regulatory pathways for ETF creation (e.g., gold). If a crypto asset is classified as a security, it must go through a more complex registration process involving disclosures about issuers and fundraising activities.

Will XRP ETF approval depend on Ripple’s lawsuit outcome?

Yes. Analyst James Seyffart has emphasized that no spot XRP ETF will be approved until legal uncertainties with the SEC are fully resolved.

Are Dogecoin and Litecoin treated similarly by regulators?

Both are considered commodities by the SEC based on current interpretations. Their decentralized nature and lack of centralized fundraising efforts support this designation.

When might we see final decisions on these ETFs?

While acknowledgment of filings could happen within days or weeks, final approvals may take months—especially for contested assets like XRP.

How do ETFs impact cryptocurrency prices?

ETF approvals typically increase investor confidence and inflows, often leading to upward price pressure. Institutional access via traditional brokerage platforms expands market participation significantly.

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Core Keywords Integrated:

As regulatory frameworks evolve and institutional interest grows, the approval of XRP, DOGE, and LTC ETFs could mark a turning point in mainstream crypto adoption. While hurdles remain—particularly for legally entangled assets—the momentum suggests that 2025 may become a landmark year for crypto-based financial products.