Ondo (ONDO) is showing renewed strength in the crypto market, recently climbing over 10% after finding solid support near a critical technical level. After a prolonged corrective phase, bullish momentum appears to be returning, sparking interest among traders and analysts. This article dives into the latest price dynamics, technical structure, and potential future trajectory of ONDO using multi-timeframe analysis to uncover key support and resistance zones.
Whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, understanding ONDO’s current positioning within its broader trend can help inform strategic decisions. Let’s explore the signals suggesting a possible trend reversal — and what must happen for the uptrend to gain full confirmation.
Technical Outlook: A Completed Correction and Emerging Impulse
The 4-hour chart reveals that ONDO has likely completed a complex corrective pattern known as a WXY structure. This type of correction typically follows strong impulsive moves and sets the stage for renewed directional momentum.
ONDO’s decline from its peak near $2.14 down to a low of $1.18 aligns closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.1777 — a historically significant support zone in technical analysis. Retracements to this level often mark the end of corrections, especially when accompanied by other confirming signals.
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Price action recently stabilized within a green demand zone between $1.15 and $1.20, reinforcing the idea of accumulation by buyers. This area also overlaps with prior wave four support from an earlier bullish impulse, adding confluence to its importance.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe dipped into oversold territory during the pullback, suggesting exhaustion among sellers. While not a standalone signal, RSI behavior strengthens the case for a bullish reversal when combined with structural support.
However, despite these encouraging signs, ONDO has yet to break above a key descending trendline resistance near $1.36. This level has acted as a ceiling in recent weeks and remains the primary barrier to sustained upside momentum.
A confirmed breakout above $1.36 would likely validate a shift in market structure, opening the door for a rally toward major Fibonacci retracement levels at $1.3614 (0.5 Fib), followed by $1.5451 (0.382 Fib). Until that happens, caution remains warranted.
Short-Term Bullish Structure Taking Shape
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, a developing five-wave impulsive pattern suggests that buyers are regaining control. The initial leg up from $1.18 to $1.25 may represent wave (i) of a new bullish impulse.
This was followed by a shallow corrective wave (ii), which held above key support around $1.1973 — a level derived from internal retracement calculations within the emerging pattern. Holding above this zone increases the probability that the pullback was merely a pause rather than the start of another downtrend.
If wave (iii) is now underway — typically the strongest and longest wave in an impulse sequence — ONDO could target Fibonacci extensions at:
- $1.3280 (1.272 Fib extension)
- $1.4087 (1.618 Fib extension)
- $1.4586 (2.0 Fib extension)
These levels represent realistic upside targets assuming momentum builds and volume supports the move.
Crucially, such an advance would require ONDO to first clear the descending trendline resistance near $1.36. A decisive close above this level would serve as strong confirmation of bullish continuation.
On the flip side, if wave (ii) extends deeper and breaks below $1.1777 — the 0.618 retracement on the 4-hour chart — it could invalidate the current impulsive count and signal further downside consolidation or even a retest of lower supports.
The RSI on the hourly chart currently sits in neutral territory, indicating there’s room for upward movement without being overbought — a positive sign for bulls if buying pressure increases.
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Key Levels to Watch
Traders should monitor the following price zones closely for potential breakouts or reversals:
Resistance Levels
- Immediate Resistance: $1.3280 (1.0 Fibonacci extension)
- Key Resistance: $1.3614 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement)
- Major Resistance: $1.4087 – $1.4586 (1.618 – 2.0 Fib extensions)
Support Levels
- Immediate Support: $1.1973 (Wave ii retracement)
- Key Support: $1.1777 (0.618 Fib retracement on 4H)
- Critical Support: $1.15 (Demand zone; breach may indicate invalidation)
Holding above $1.18 is essential for maintaining bullish bias. A sustained drop below this zone could undermine confidence in the emerging impulse structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a WXY corrective pattern mean for ONDO?
A WXY pattern is a complex correction that often occurs after strong price moves. Its completion suggests that selling pressure may be exhausted, paving the way for a new impulsive phase — potentially bullish in ONDO’s current case.
Why is the $1.36 level so important?
The $1.36 zone marks a descending trendline resistance that has capped rallies in recent weeks. Breaking above it would confirm a shift in momentum and likely attract additional buying interest.
Can ONDO reach $1.50 in the short term?
Yes, if ONDO clears $1.36 and confirms wave (iii) acceleration, targets between $1.40 and $1.46 become achievable. Reaching $1.50 would require strong follow-through and broader market support.
What invalidates the bullish scenario?
A breakdown below $1.1777 on the 4-hour chart would challenge the idea of a completed correction. Further losses below $1.15 could signal resumption of the larger downtrend.
How reliable are Fibonacci levels in crypto trading?
Fibonacci retracements and extensions are widely used tools in technical analysis, especially in volatile markets like crypto. While not foolproof, they often highlight areas where institutional and algorithmic traders place orders, making them self-fulfilling to some extent.
Should I buy ONDO now?
Entry decisions should align with your risk tolerance and strategy. A conservative approach would wait for a confirmed breakout above $1.36 with strong volume. Aggressive traders might consider scaling in near current support levels with tight stop-losses.
Final Thoughts
ONDO is at a pivotal juncture. After correcting nearly 45% from its highs, it has found footing near key technical support aligned with Fibonacci levels and prior structural zones. Early signs point to a potential reversal, supported by oversold conditions and emerging bullish wave patterns.
Still, confirmation is key. Until ONDO breaks and holds above $1.36, the bullish case remains speculative. Traders should remain vigilant, using defined levels to manage risk and capitalize on potential upside.
With volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets, staying informed and disciplined is crucial.
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