The cryptocurrency market has seen its fair share of volatility in recent weeks, and Stellar (XLM) is no exception. After a rocky start to the week, the XLM price has begun to stabilize, briefly reclaiming the $0.28 mark over the weekend. This renewed momentum has caught the attention of traders and analysts alike, with growing speculation that Stellar could be on the verge of a significant upward move.
According to prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez, XLM may be setting up for a strong rally in the coming weeks — potentially climbing as high as $0.38. This projection, if realized, would represent a surge of nearly 40% from current levels.
Why Analysts Are Bullish on XLM
On March 15, Martinez shared a detailed technical analysis on X (formerly Twitter), highlighting key chart patterns that suggest a bullish reversal may be underway for Stellar. The foundation of this optimism lies in the formation of a descending channel on the XLM daily chart — a structure that has defined much of the token’s price action since November 2024.
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A descending channel is formed when an asset’s price creates a series of lower highs and lower lows, bounded by two parallel downward-sloping trendlines. In most cases, this pattern reflects sustained bearish pressure. However, it can also serve as a powerful indicator of potential trend reversal — especially when the price begins to break out or show signs of strength near key support levels.
In XLM’s case, the price recently bounced off the lower boundary of this channel near $0.23, a level that has now acted as strong support. Since then, the token has rebounded and is gradually moving toward the channel’s midline — a crucial inflection point that often precedes larger directional moves.
Martinez notes that once XLM clears the midline — currently sitting around $0.30** — it could pave the way for a retest of the upper boundary near **$0.38. This level not only represents a major resistance zone but also marks where Stellar traded in early February before the broader market correction took hold.
Understanding the Technical Setup
To fully appreciate the significance of this potential breakout, it's important to understand how descending channels work in technical analysis:
- The upper trendline connects a sequence of declining peaks, acting as resistance.
- The lower trendline connects a series of lower troughs, serving as dynamic support.
- As long as price remains within the channel, the downtrend is considered intact.
- A break below the lower boundary typically signals further downside.
- Conversely, a break above the upper boundary suggests a reversal to bullish momentum.
While XLM hasn’t yet broken out of the channel, the fact that it has held support and is building momentum toward the midline increases the likelihood of a reversal. Historically, such patterns have preceded strong rallies — particularly when accompanied by improving market sentiment and rising trading volume.
Current Market Performance
At the time of writing, Stellar (XLM) is trading at approximately $0.27, showing a modest 0.83% gain over the past 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap data, weekly performance stands at a slight decline of 0.76%, while the monthly chart reveals a more pronounced drop of 17.25%.
Despite these short-term losses, the recent bounce from critical support suggests underlying strength. Moreover, broader market conditions are beginning to stabilize, with increased institutional interest and macroeconomic signals pointing to potential rate cuts later in 2025 — factors that could benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
Key Price Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $0.30 (channel midline)
- Next Target: $0.34 (previous consolidation zone)
- Upside Potential: $0.38 (upper channel boundary)
- Strong Support: $0.23 (recent bounce point)
If XLM sustains momentum above $0.30, it could trigger a wave of buying pressure from both retail and algorithmic traders anticipating a full channel breakout.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is causing the recent rise in XLM price?
The current uptick in Stellar’s price appears to be driven by technical factors — primarily a bounce off long-term support near $0.23 and consolidation within a descending channel. Improved market sentiment and reduced selling pressure have also contributed to the stabilization.
Is $0.38 a realistic target for XLM?
Yes, $0.38 is a technically significant level based on the current chart structure. It aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel and matches previous resistance from early February. While external factors like market volatility could influence timing, the target is grounded in sound technical analysis.
How does Stellar (XLM) differ from other cryptocurrencies?
Stellar focuses on fast, low-cost cross-border payments and financial inclusion. Its network enables seamless transfers between fiat and digital currencies, making it attractive to banks and payment providers. Unlike speculative tokens, XLM has real-world utility in remittances and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
Could XLM break out of its downtrend?
There are early signs that a reversal may be forming. Holding above $0.23 and moving toward the midline are positive indicators. A confirmed close above $0.30 would strengthen the bullish case, while a break above $0.38 could signal the start of a new uptrend.
What should investors watch for next?
Traders should monitor volume trends, price action around $0.30, and broader crypto market movements. A high-volume breakout above key resistance levels would increase confidence in a sustained rally.
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Final Outlook
While no price prediction is guaranteed, the technical setup for Stellar presents a compelling case for cautious optimism. With XLM holding critical support and showing signs of accumulation, the path toward $0.30–$0.38 appears increasingly plausible over the next few weeks.
Investors should remain mindful of overall market conditions and avoid over-leveraging based on short-term projections. However, for those with a medium-term horizon, the current phase may represent a strategic entry point ahead of a potential breakout.
As always, combining technical analysis with fundamental understanding — such as Stellar’s growing adoption in global payments and partnerships with financial institutions — adds depth to any investment decision.
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