Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience, holding above the $95,000 mark amid surging institutional demand and dwindling supply on centralized exchanges. With market confidence bolstered by strong ETF inflows and favorable macroeconomic indicators, BTC is poised for a potential breakout toward six figures. This article explores the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s current momentum, including exchange outflows, ETF performance, macroeconomic shifts, and growing altcoin strength.
Institutional Demand Fuels Bitcoin Momentum
One of the most significant catalysts behind Bitcoin’s recent price action is the surge in institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded a staggering $1 billion in inflows on a single day—its second-largest daily inflow since launch—propelling Bitcoin toward the $95,500 resistance level.
This massive capital injection underscores growing trust among institutional investors. Since April 22, IBIT has accumulated over $4.5 billion in net inflows and now commands approximately 51% of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market, managing more than $54 billion in assets.
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While Fidelity and Ark Invest saw minor redemptions during the same period, aggregate ETF deposits still reached $591 million, highlighting sustained appetite despite short-term fluctuations. Analysts believe this momentum could inspire further participation from both retail and institutional players in the coming weeks.
Declining Exchange Supply Signals Strong Holder Conviction
On-chain data reveals a powerful structural shift: Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges has dropped to a seven-year low of approximately 2.492 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant. Over the past week alone, roughly 56,164 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges—a clear sign that investors are moving their holdings into self-custody or long-term storage.
This trend reduces available sell-side liquidity and diminishes downward price pressure. When fewer coins are available for immediate sale, markets become more resistant to downturns, especially during periods of strong demand.
Additionally, over 85% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now in profit, reflecting widespread holder confidence. While analysts note that exceeding 90% profitability may signal "historic euphoria" and increase correction risks, current levels remain within a healthy accumulation zone.
Illiquid supply—the portion of BTC not actively traded—has risen from 61.50% to 63.49%, while liquid supply has declined by 4%. This shift indicates a growing number of holders are adopting long-term strategies, reinforcing Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value.
Macroeconomic Shifts Favor Risk Assets
Recent U.S. economic data has added fuel to Bitcoin’s bullish case. The March 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report showed job openings falling sharply to 7.19 million, below the expected 7.48 million. This cooling labor market raises expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts—a development historically favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and often lead to increased investment in high-growth instruments, including cryptocurrencies.
Economic analyst Alex Kruger described Bitcoin as a “risk/gold hybrid,” noting its dual appeal as both a speculative asset and a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. He views the current environment—marked by potential tariff de-escalation and monetary easing—as short-term positive for BTC, though he cautions about possible Q3 volatility due to broader economic slowdown concerns.
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Fidelity Digital Assets: Bitcoin Remains Undervalued
Despite recent gains, Fidelity Digital Assets maintains a bullish mid-term outlook for Bitcoin. In its latest analysis, the firm highlighted that Bitcoin remains undervalued based on its proprietary Bitcoin Yardstick metric.
This model evaluates BTC’s market capitalization relative to its network hashrate—an indicator of security and computational effort. According to Fidelity, the current ratio suggests Bitcoin is “cheaper” compared to the strength and resilience of its underlying network.
The firm also notes that Bitcoin is entering an “acceleration phase,” a historical pattern where rapid price increases and new all-time highs become more frequent. These phases often follow periods of consolidation and are driven by increasing adoption and scarcity dynamics.
Altcoins Gain Momentum Amid Growing Risk Appetite
While Bitcoin’s price movement has stabilized near $95,500, altcoins have begun outperforming the market leader. After a week of consolidation, major altcoins broke through key resistance levels on Tuesday, signaling renewed investor confidence.
Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) each posted 2% gains, surpassing Bitcoin’s modest 0.6% increase. This capital rotation into alternative ecosystems reflects rising risk appetite across the crypto market.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) led the pack with a 6% rally, potentially benefiting from increased interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies amid ongoing scrutiny around Monero (XMR). Meanwhile, Hyperliquid, a leading real-world asset (RWA) protocol, surged 18.4%, highlighting strong demand for tokenized financial instruments.
In infrastructure developments:
- Circle received regulatory approval from Abu Dhabi’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority to expand USDC operations across the Middle East and Africa.
- 1inch Network launched its Fusion protocol on Solana, enabling MEV-protected swaps for over one million Solana-based tokens and planning cross-chain integration with ten additional networks.
These advancements underscore the maturation of decentralized finance (DeFi) and stablecoin ecosystems beyond Ethereum.
Market Outlook: Eyes on $100,000 and Beyond
As Bitcoin tests the $95,500 psychological level, technical analysts remain optimistic. Matrixport suggests upward momentum is strengthening, with a potential move toward **$106,000 on the horizon. Willy Woo has also updated his assessment, stating that Bitcoin’s fundamentals have shifted into a confirmed bullish regime**.
Looking ahead:
- 45.4% of South Korean investors expect Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next six months (Coinness report).
- ARK Invest maintains its long-term forecast of $2.4 million per BTC by 2030, driven by ETF expansion and deepening institutional integration.
Bitcoin currently trades at $95,200**, with traders closely monitoring volume patterns and order book depth for signs of a breakout above the **$100,000 milestone.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is low exchange supply bullish for Bitcoin?
A: Lower supply on exchanges means fewer coins are available for immediate sale, reducing selling pressure and increasing scarcity—key drivers of price appreciation during high-demand periods.
Q: How do ETF inflows affect Bitcoin's price?
A: Large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT signal strong institutional demand, directly increasing buying pressure and often leading to sustained upward price momentum.
Q: What does it mean when Bitcoin is labeled 'undervalued'?
A: Metrics like Fidelity’s Bitcoin Yardstick compare market value to network fundamentals (e.g., hashrate). If the price lags behind these indicators, it suggests room for future growth.
Q: Are altcoins outperforming Bitcoin a sign of market health?
A: Yes—when altcoins rally after a Bitcoin-dominated phase, it often indicates growing confidence and increased risk-taking across the broader crypto market.
Q: Could Federal Reserve rate cuts boost Bitcoin?
A: Yes. Lower interest rates reduce returns on traditional assets like bonds, making non-yielding but high-growth assets such as Bitcoin more attractive to investors.
Q: What prevents Bitcoin from breaking past $100,000?
A: Key obstacles include profit-taking at resistance levels, regulatory uncertainty, or unexpected macroeconomic shocks. However, strong ETF flows and low exchange supply improve breakout odds.
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