Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential resurgence as bulls fight to maintain price above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $84,899. With market sentiment cautiously optimistic, analysts are closely watching key price levels that could determine whether the leading cryptocurrency will continue its upward trajectory or face another correction. According to Ryan Lee, Research Director at BITGET, Bitcoin needs to close above $85,000 this week to signal strength and avoid a drop toward $76,000. A weekly close above $87,000 would further confirm bullish momentum.
Global macroeconomic tensions—particularly escalating trade wars—have weighed on both traditional and crypto markets in recent days. Nicolai Sondergaard, Research Analyst at Nansen, suggests these pressures may persist until at least April 2. Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction Daily X Show, he noted that a de-escalation in tariffs could become “the biggest driver” for market recovery in the near term.
Despite short-term volatility, long-term sentiment remains positive. Timothy Peterson, market analyst and author, analyzed past bear markets and shared on X that bear phases typically last around 90 days. He predicts a potential 20–40% rally could follow within 30 days after mid-April, assuming Bitcoin stabilizes and regains upward momentum.
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If Bitcoin breaks out successfully, altcoins like Toncoin (TON), Avalanche (AVAX), Near Protocol (NEAR), and OKB could see significant follow-through rallies. Let’s examine each asset’s technical outlook.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Holding Key Support
Bitcoin has struggled to sustain moves above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $85,246. However, the fact that bears haven’t pushed prices significantly lower is a positive sign. This resilience increases the likelihood of a breakout above the EMA.
A move above $87,500—confirmed by a strong daily close—would signal renewed bullish momentum and open the path toward $92,500 and eventually $95,000. The 50-day SMA at $90,469 acts as an intermediate target.
On the downside, failure to hold above the 20-day EMA and a breakdown below $81,000 could shift control back to bears. Such a scenario might lead to a decline toward $80,000 and then $76,606—the latter being a critical support level. If that breaks, the next major support lies at $73,777, with a deeper correction potentially targeting $67,000.
The 4-hour chart shows flat-moving averages but an RSI entering positive territory—suggesting growing bullish momentum. The immediate battle is around $87,500; a confirmed close above confirms strength. Conversely, a close below $80,000 would favor bears and likely trigger another leg down.
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Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis: Bullish Momentum Building
Toncoin recently rejected the $4.00 level on March 20 but has since recovered, indicating strong buyer interest. The moving averages are approaching a bullish crossover, while the RSI has entered positive territory—both signs of strengthening momentum.
A breakout and daily close above $4.00 could propel TON/USDT toward $5.00. However, if price drops below the 20-day EMA at $3.39, the short-term bullish outlook would be invalidated. That could push the pair down to $2.81, with solid support at $2.73.
On the 4-hour chart, buyers are defending the 20-EMA, suggesting accumulation during dips. Sellers are likely to resist strongly between $3.80 and $4.00. A breakdown below $3.28 with a close under that level would shift control back to bears, potentially leading to a drop toward $2.90.
Conversely, a confirmed breakout above $4.00 would signal strength. Minimal resistance exists at $4.14, which could be quickly surpassed. The next target zone lies around $4.67.
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Avalanche (AVAX) Price Analysis: Signs of Reversal?
Avalanche remains in a strong downtrend, but a positive divergence on the RSI suggests bearish momentum may be weakening. The AVAX/USDT pair has held above the 20-day EMA ($19.76), increasing the odds of a breakout.
If AVAX clears the 20-day EMA, it could climb toward the 50-day SMA at $22.41 and then test the resistance zone between $25.12 and $27.23. Such a move would indicate a potential end to the current downtrend.
However, failure to break higher and a drop below support at $15.27 could reinvigorate the bearish trend, possibly extending losses toward $11.00.
On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating between $18.12 and $20.10. The 20-EMA is turning upward slightly, and RSI is in positive territory—giving bulls a minor edge. A breakout above $20.10 could lead to gains toward $21.20 and then $22.50.
A breakdown below $18.12 would suggest bears are regaining control, potentially dragging price down to $16.95 and eventually testing $15.27 again.
Near Protocol (NEAR) Price Analysis: Early Bullish Signals
Near Protocol has been in a strong downtrend but is now showing early reversal signals. A positive RSI divergence indicates weakening bearish pressure.
A breakout above the 50-day SMA at $3.05 would strengthen the bulls and open the door for a rally toward $3.65. Sellers are expected to defend that level aggressively, but if bulls take control, NEAR/USDT could surge toward $5.00.
Conversely, if price falls below $2.48, it would suggest bears still dominate. That could lead to another drop toward strong support at $2.14.
On the 4-hour chart, price is trading above the 20-EMA—indicating buyers are stepping in during pullbacks. A breakout above $2.83 could initiate a move toward $3.25. Resistance at $3.25 may hold temporarily, but a break above could set up a run toward $3.65.
A drop below the moving averages would invalidate the short-term bullish view and likely push price toward $2.48 and then $2.34.
OKB Price Analysis: Channel Play in Motion
OKB has been trading within a descending channel pattern—typical of markets where traders buy near support and sell near resistance.
The pair gained momentum after breaking above the 20-day EMA ($48.39) on March 14 and rose close to $54—a level that may now act as resistance. The shallow pullback suggests bulls aren’t rushing for the exit, increasing chances of another leg up toward resistance.
However, if price sustains lower levels and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($47.56), it would indicate bears remain active at higher prices—potentially pushing OKB down to $45.
On the 4-hour chart, sellers are attempting to keep price below the 50-SMA. Success would dampen bullish momentum. Support sits at $48; if that breaks, another drop toward $45 is likely.
Conversely, a strong bounce from the 50-SMA suggests positive sentiment remains intact—with buyers stepping in during dips. In that case, upward momentum could resume above $54 and target resistance within the channel.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the key Bitcoin price level to watch right now?
A: A daily close above $87,500 is critical for confirming bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to hold above $81,000 could lead to further downside.
Q: Can altcoins rally without Bitcoin leading?
A: While altcoins can see short-term gains independently, sustained rallies usually follow strong Bitcoin performance due to BTC’s dominance in market sentiment.
Q: Is Toncoin likely to reach $5?
A: Yes—if TON breaks and holds above $4 with strong volume, a move toward $5 becomes increasingly probable.
Q: What triggers a bearish reversal in AVAX?
A: A breakdown below $15.27 support on daily charts would signal renewed bearish momentum and potentially extend losses toward $11.
Q: How reliable is RSI divergence in predicting reversals?
A: While not foolproof, positive RSI divergence during downtrends often precedes reversals—especially when confirmed by price action and volume.
Q: Should I trade OKB within the channel or wait for breakout?
A: Conservative traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above resistance or breakdown below support. Active traders may consider range-bound strategies with tight risk management.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice or recommendation. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk—conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.