Can TON Repeat Solana’s Ascent from the Depths?

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In 2024, The Open Network (TON) captured widespread attention in the crypto space. Fueled by Telegram’s massive user base, the integration of USDT stablecoin, and consistent backing from Binance, TON rapidly expanded its infrastructure and ecosystem. Projects like Notcoin and Catizen emerged as breakout successes, painting a picture of explosive growth and viral adoption.

Yet, by mid-2024, the narrative shifted. The arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in France cast a shadow over the network. As TON’s price declined, long-standing criticisms resurfaced: an unbalanced ecosystem, a user base largely lacking crypto-native behaviors, and occasional network instability. Skeptics declared TON a flash in the pan — a product of hype, not fundamentals.

But is that the full story?

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Looking back, this moment feels eerily familiar. In 2022, Solana (SOL) faced a near-death experience following the FTX collapse. With SBF deeply entwined in Solana’s ecosystem — funding projects, holding equity, and driving liquidity — the implosion triggered a 96% price drop and a 98% decline in total value locked (TVL). The community was drowning in FUD.

Yet, within two years, Solana roared back. It climbed to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, surpassing traditional financial giants and reclaiming its position as a top-tier Layer 1. Its resurgence wasn’t luck — it was driven by technical resilience, ecosystem innovation, and a self-reinforcing growth flywheel.

Now, as TON navigates its own downturn, a critical question emerges: Can TON replicate Solana’s comeback?

Solana’s Road to Recovery

1. Continuous Technical Evolution

Solana’s early setbacks weren’t trivial. The network suffered multiple outages due to congestion and consensus failures. Low fees, while user-friendly, enabled spam attacks that overwhelmed validators. However, the team responded with decisive upgrades.

Key improvements included better congestion control, optimized validator client infrastructure, and enhanced transaction prioritization. These changes stabilized the network, restored trust, and laid the foundation for high-throughput DeFi and NFT applications.

2. Low Fees and Deep Liquidity

Solana’s sub-cent transaction fees made it ideal for high-frequency on-chain activity. But more importantly, the arrival of major stablecoins — USDC and later USDT — supercharged its DeFi ecosystem.

Stablecoins act as economic lubricants. They enable seamless trading, lending, and yield generation. With Circle and Tether supporting Solana, developers had the tools to build sophisticated financial primitives. This liquidity magnet attracted both retail users and institutional capital.

3. Creative and Agile Builders

Solana’s revival was also powered by its community. Projects like StepN (move-to-earn), MagicEden (NFT marketplace), and pump.fun (meme coin launchpad) demonstrated unmatched product velocity. These platforms didn’t just attract users — they created cultural moments.

The rise of meme coins in 2023 became a catalyst. pump.fun allowed anyone to launch tokens in seconds, fueling speculative energy and on-chain activity. This grassroots innovation reactivated the network and brought in millions of new users.

4. The Growth Flywheel

When speed, low cost, strong infrastructure, and viral projects align, a flywheel begins to spin:

This self-sustaining cycle propelled Solana through AI, DePIN, and SocialFi trends — each wave reinforcing the chain’s relevance.

TON’s Foundational Strengths

TON isn’t starting from scratch. In fact, its technical foundation may be even more advanced than Solana’s was in 2022.

Breakthrough Architecture

TON leverages three core innovations:

Together, these technologies deliver high throughput, low latency, and exceptional reliability — ideal for mass adoption.

Strong Liquidity and User Base

In April 2024, Tether integrated USDT on TON. By November, over $1.23 billion in USDT was issued — closing fast on Solana’s $1.89 billion.

More impressively, TON has already attracted hundreds of millions of users through Telegram mini-games:

These numbers are unprecedented in Web3 history.

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Why Isn’t the Flywheel Spinning?

Despite these advantages, TON’s on-chain activity remains muted compared to its off-chain buzz.

Data reveals a stark imbalance:

The root cause? DeFi is missing.

The DeFi Gap

TON’s architecture introduces unique challenges for decentralized finance:

As a result, building DeFi on TON is significantly harder. Industry estimates suggest it takes three EVM developers to match one TON developer’s output.

This friction explains why most trading for TON-based meme coins like Notcoin and $DOGS happens on centralized exchanges (CEXs). Over 95% of transactions occur off-chain — a paradox where off-platform hype doesn’t translate to on-chain utility.

Without robust DEXs, lending protocols, or yield opportunities, crypto-native users have little reason to engage deeply with TON.

TON’s Real Game: Web2.5 Adoption

Here’s the twist: TON may not want to be another Solana.

While Solana competes as a high-performance L1 for developers, TON is playing a different game — becoming the gateway for Web2 users into crypto.

Justin, Growth Director at the TON Foundation, frames it as “Web2.5” — blending Web2 usability with Web3 ownership.

Imagine using decentralized crowdfunding inside Telegram, or tipping creators with crypto without ever leaving the app. That’s TON’s vision: seamless integration of digital money into everyday messaging.

Telegram’s 900 million monthly active users represent the largest potential onboarding channel in crypto today. In regions like Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia — where traditional banking is limited — Telegram is already a financial hub.

Binance recognizes this. Their aggressive listing of TON-based tokens isn’t just speculation — it’s customer acquisition. Each new meme coin brings millions of new users into the exchange ecosystem.

This mirrors the Play-to-Earn boom led by Axie Infinity in Southeast Asia. Back then, YGG guilds trained farmers to earn crypto through gameplay. Today, Hamster Kombat players are unknowingly learning wallet management, gas fees, and token trading — all within Telegram.

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FAQs: Your TON Questions Answered

Q: Is TON just another meme coin chain?
A: No. While meme coins dominate headlines, TON is building long-term infrastructure for mass adoption. Its real value lies in bridging Web2 users to Web3 through Telegram.

Q: Can TON ever develop a strong DeFi ecosystem?
A: Yes — but it will require better developer tools, EVM compatibility layers (like bridges or wrappers), and incentives for DeFi teams to build natively on TVM.

Q: What happens when the “dust wallets” unlock in 2025?
A: A major concern. Over 85% of TON supply is held by inactive mining wallets. If these tokens flood the market post-unlock, prices could drop sharply. The community must propose new staking or locking mechanisms to mitigate this risk.

Q: How does TON compare to Solana technically?
A: TON has superior scalability via infinite sharding and self-healing chains. However, Solana currently leads in developer experience, composability, and DeFi maturity.

Q: Is TON centralized because of Telegram?
A: While Telegram initiated TON, it has since transitioned to a decentralized foundation. The network operates independently, though its success remains closely tied to Telegram’s adoption.

Q: Can TON survive without DeFi?
A: In the short term, yes — through games and CEX trading. But long-term sustainability requires on-chain economic activity. DeFi isn’t optional; it’s essential for retention and value capture.

The Path Forward

TON’s journey won’t mirror Solana’s — nor should it. Its strength lies not in competing with Ethereum or Solana head-on, but in onboarding the next billion users who don’t care about decentralization but do care about utility.

To succeed, TON must:

  1. Improve developer experience — Release better SDKs, documentation, and EVM-compatible tooling.
  2. Incentivize DeFi builders — Launch grants, hackathons, and liquidity programs.
  3. Manage token distribution — Propose new governance measures before the 2025 unlock.
  4. Shift from viral growth to retention — Focus on content depth and long-term engagement in mini-games.

If TON executes well, it won’t just repeat Solana’s rise — it could redefine what blockchain success looks like in the age of mass adoption.