The momentum behind spot Bitcoin ETFs appears to be cooling. Recently, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded zero net inflows for the first time since these products launched in January—a stark contrast to its earlier dominance. Despite this slowdown in institutional appetite, experts like Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
After briefly dipping below $60,000 amid escalating military tensions between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin rebounded following its quadrennial "halving" event. While market sentiment remains fragile due to geopolitical uncertainty and regulatory delays, underlying structural forces continue to support a potential rally later in 2025.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Stall
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major catalyst for institutional adoption since their U.S. debut in January. However, recent data shows a notable slowdown in investor interest.
On April 24, BlackRock’s IBIT saw zero net inflows—a historic first since its launch. Prior to this, IBIT had attracted millions daily, amassing nearly $15.5 billion in just 71 days. This sudden stagnation signals shifting investor behavior or temporary market caution.
Among the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S., only two reported positive flows that day:
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): +$5.6 million
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): +$4.2 million
Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued its outflow trend with a massive $130.4 million withdrawal**, contributing to a total net outflow of **$120.6 million across all ETFs on that date.
It's worth noting that while IBIT’s stagnation made headlines, zero-inflow days are not uncommon for other funds. For example, Fidelity’s FBTC experienced three such days in the past two weeks alone.
Despite these fluctuations, the overall market has seen $12.3 billion in cumulative net inflows since launch. However, GBTC’s persistent outflows have partially offset gains from newer entrants.
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Ethereum ETF Approval Hopes Fade
While Bitcoin ETFs struggle with momentum, hopes for a spot Ethereum ETF approval are also dimming. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Ethereum trust conversion by 60 days, pushing the deadline to June 23.
This extension reflects ongoing regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty around Ethereum’s classification—is it a security or a commodity? Additional headwinds include:
- SEC lawsuit against Uniswap, a major decentralized exchange
- Rising U.S. Treasury yields, making risk-free assets more attractive
- Ongoing Middle East tensions affecting global risk sentiment
These factors collectively weigh on crypto markets, reinforcing short-term volatility and dampening speculative enthusiasm.
Why Bitcoin Could Still Rally to $150K
Despite current headwinds, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick maintains a highly optimistic outlook. He predicts Bitcoin could reach **$150,000 by the end of 2025**, more than double the bank’s earlier forecast—and well above the March 14 high of $73,797.68.
Key Drivers Behind the Bullish Forecast
1. Post-Halving Supply Shock
The recent Bitcoin halving reduced new supply issuance by 50%. This means that even half the previous ETF inflow volume can now absorb all newly mined coins, creating a structural deficit if demand holds steady.
Kendrick emphasized:
“Yes, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have stalled—but now that the halving is complete, only half the inflow is needed to cover net new supply.”
2. Global Expansion of Spot ETFs
U.S. inflows may be slowing, but international developments are promising. Regulatory progress in the UK and Hong Kong suggests broader global adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs is underway. As more markets open access, demand diversification will reduce reliance on U.S.-only flows.
3. Clearer Market Positioning
Kendrick notes that “market positioning is now much clearer than before.” A prime example occurred on April 13, when $261 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated following Iran’s attack on Israel—the largest single-day long squeeze since October 2023.
Such cleanouts reduce systemic risk and pave the way for healthier rallies. With speculative excesses removed, the market is better positioned for sustainable growth.
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Bitcoin: Risk Asset or Safe Haven?
There's an ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in times of crisis. While proponents tout it as a hedge against instability, its price dropped after the Iran-Israel escalation—behaving more like a risk-on asset than a safe haven.
This shift reflects deeper integration into mainstream finance. As institutional participation grows, Bitcoin increasingly mirrors equities in reaction to macro events. However, one key difference remains: crypto markets never sleep.
Unlike stock exchanges, which react during business hours, crypto trades 24/7—often leading the way in pricing in breaking news. This makes it both more volatile and potentially more responsive than traditional assets.
Mid-Term Bull Case Reemerging
With Middle East tensions showing signs of de-escalation and major technical corrections already priced in, Kendrick believes now is the time to re-enter:
“Now is the time to re-establish medium-term long positions.”
He sees negative drivers fading and positive structural trends regaining control, including:
- Reduced inflation expectations
- Potential rate cuts later in 2025
- Stronger global ETF adoption beyond the U.S.
- Increasing treasury allocations by corporations
For Ethereum, Kendrick forecasts a rise to $8,000, supported by growing decentralized application usage and possible ETF approval down the line.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF see zero inflows?
A: Zero inflows reflect temporary investor caution rather than a fundamental rejection of Bitcoin. Factors include geopolitical uncertainty, profit-taking after the halving, and shifting focus toward potential Ethereum ETF developments.
Q: Does slow ETF inflow mean Bitcoin won’t go higher?
A: Not necessarily. Post-halving dynamics mean less buying pressure is required to sustain price growth. Additionally, global ETF expansion and corporate adoption provide alternative demand sources.
Q: Is Bitcoin still a good hedge against geopolitical risk?
A: Its performance during recent conflicts suggests limited safe-haven properties in the short term. However, over longer horizons, limited supply and increasing institutional ownership support its role as a macro hedge.
Q: When might a spot Ethereum ETF be approved?
A: The SEC extended its decision deadline to June 23 for Grayscale’s application. Approval remains uncertain but could happen later in 2025 if regulators clarify Ethereum’s non-security status.
Q: How realistic is $150,000 for Bitcoin?
A: While ambitious, this target aligns with historical post-halving cycles and growing macro adoption. If global spot ETFs expand and liquidity improves, such levels are within reach by late 2025.
Q: What risks could derail the bull market?
A: Key risks include renewed regulatory crackdowns, prolonged high interest rates, escalation of global conflicts, or prolonged stagnation in ETF inflows.
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Final Outlook
While spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have cooled and geopolitical tensions persist, the foundation for a major price move remains intact. The halving has tightened supply, speculative excesses have been flushed out, and global institutional interest continues to build.
Standard Chartered’s bold forecast of $150,000 for Bitcoin and $8,000 for Ethereum hinges on structural tailwinds overcoming short-term noise. As negative catalysts fade and adoption widens beyond U.S. borders, the stage may be set for another leg up in the crypto supercycle.
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