Bitcoin’s recent rally is showing signs of strain, with a growing number of analysts warning of a potential correction unless the leading cryptocurrency breaks and holds above the psychologically critical $100,000 resistance level. While bullish momentum remains intact on higher timeframes, short-term technical signals suggest caution as market participants weigh the odds of a breakout versus a pullback.
TD Sequential Signals a Potential Correction
On November 12, 2024, crypto analyst Ali—known on X (formerly Twitter) as @ali_charts—identified a bearish pattern on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart using the TD Sequential indicator. This technical tool, developed by market analyst Tom DeMark, is widely used to anticipate trend exhaustion and possible reversals in price action.
According to Ali’s analysis, the TD Sequential has issued a sell signal, forecasting a potential price correction down to $91,583**, with an extended downside target of **$85,610 in a worst-case scenario. However, the sell signal can be invalidated if Bitcoin closes decisively above $100,535.
“The TD Sequential presented a sell signal on the Bitcoin 12-hour chart, anticipating a price correction to $91,583 or even $85,610. BTC needs to close above $100,535 to invalidate the sell signal,” Ali posted to his 89,300 followers.
The TD Sequential operates in two phases: Setup and Countdown. The Setup phase tracks consecutive closing prices—either higher or lower than previous periods—to detect trend strength. Once the Setup completes, the Countdown begins, aiming to pinpoint when momentum may be waning. A full Countdown completion often signals that a trend reversal could be imminent.
In Bitcoin’s current case, the bearish Countdown suggests that upward momentum may be fading just as the price approaches the long-anticipated $100K mark.
Market Conditions: Bullish Trend Meets Neutral Momentum
As of November 25, 2024, Bitcoin is trading between $97,076 and $97,547, reflecting strong upward pressure over recent weeks. Long-term indicators such as the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA) continue to support a bullish outlook, with both trending upward across daily and weekly charts.
However, short-term oscillators are painting a more cautious picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator are currently showing neutral momentum readings, indicating that the market may be overbought or entering a consolidation phase. These conditions often precede either a breakout or a pullback.
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Additionally, trading volume has begun to decline as Bitcoin hovers near $100,000. This tapering volume suggests that buyers are becoming hesitant at current levels, potentially waiting for clearer directional confirmation before committing more capital.
Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
The $100,000 level remains the most critical resistance zone in the current market cycle. A confirmed close above this threshold could trigger a wave of institutional and retail buying, accelerating Bitcoin’s path toward new all-time highs.
Conversely, failure to break through could lead to profit-taking and increased selling pressure. In such a scenario, traders are watching several key support levels:
- $95,000: Initial support zone where short-term bulls may step in.
- $93,000: Stronger support backed by previous resistance-turned-support.
- $85,610: Deep correction target as highlighted by Ali’s TD Sequential analysis.
A drop to $85,610 would represent a retracement of roughly 14% from current levels—a significant but not uncommon correction during mature bull phases.
Why the $100K Level Matters
The psychological importance of $100,000 cannot be overstated. For years, this level has served as both a mental barrier and a target for investors and traders alike. Breaking above it would likely shift market sentiment from speculative optimism to confirmed bullish dominance.
Moreover, surpassing $100K could activate algorithmic trading strategies and leveraged long positions that are set to trigger at or near this level. This could create a self-reinforcing cycle of buying pressure.
On the flip side, repeated rejection at $100K might fuel bearish narratives and encourage short positions, especially if macroeconomic conditions—such as interest rate policies or regulatory developments—turn unfavorable.
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FAQ: Understanding Bitcoin’s Current Price Action
Q: What is the TD Sequential indicator?
A: The TD Sequential is a technical analysis tool created by Tom DeMark to identify potential trend exhaustion and reversals. It uses price bar sequences to forecast when a market move may be losing momentum.
Q: Can Bitcoin still go up if it doesn’t break $100K?
A: Yes—failure to break $100K doesn’t mean the bull run is over. Bitcoin could consolidate near this level before attempting another breakout. However, prolonged rejection increases the risk of a deeper correction.
Q: What would confirm that the correction is over?
A: A strong close above $100,535—particularly on high volume—would invalidate the current bearish TD Sequential signal and suggest renewed bullish momentum.
Q: How reliable are technical indicators like TD Sequential?
A: While no indicator is 100% accurate, TD Sequential has a strong track record in identifying turning points in trending markets. It works best when combined with volume analysis and other technical tools.
Q: Is a drop to $85,610 likely?
A: That level represents a worst-case scenario. It would require not only failure at $100K but also negative market catalysts such as macroeconomic shocks or regulatory crackdowns. Without such triggers, a shallower pullback is more probable.
The Path Forward: Breakout or Pullback?
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture. The confluence of technical signals, psychological resistance, and fading momentum creates a high-stakes environment for traders and investors.
On one hand, the long-term fundamentals remain strong—driven by adoption trends, institutional interest, and macroeconomic factors like monetary policy shifts. On the other hand, technical indicators are flashing caution signs that should not be ignored.
A decisive move above $100,535 would likely erase near-term bearish concerns and open the door for further gains. Until then, volatility should be expected, and risk management remains essential.
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Final Thoughts
While Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory still appears bullish, the road to new highs may not be smooth. The upcoming battle at $100K will determine whether the current rally continues or gives way to a meaningful correction.
Traders should monitor volume patterns, closing prices above key resistance levels, and broader market sentiment to gauge the next directional move. With tools like the TD Sequential highlighting potential risks, staying informed and agile is more important than ever in today’s dynamic crypto landscape.
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